"I tell people who want to farm to pick a different career," he said. While hopeful about guayule, which could potentially make up for his farm's revenue loss by 2026, Thelander is skeptical about the future of farming in Arizona. Thelander's farm experienced a 20% revenue loss this year, a smaller number than expected due to skyrocketing prices of supplies such as hay. "It's super uncomfortable to say, 'We told you so,' but man - there's been a lot of science about this problem for a long time." Hope for Arizona's agriculture "The drop in reservoir contents is stunning, but it feels inevitable that we reached this point," Udall said. After all, he said, scientists have been warning about declining reservoir levels in the West for at least four decades. In just five years, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the river's two largest reservoirs, have lost 50% of their capacity.īradley Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University's Colorado Water Institute, is not shocked by the drop. Reservoirs in the Colorado River Basin dropped to their lowest levels on record last year following 22 consecutive years of drought. One major concern is whether the Tier 1 water restrictions are enough to sustain reservoir levels as less water flows into the river. "Then, the question is, can we pay for the water and taxes? Probably not. "You got costs for leveling the land, pairing the fields, buying seed, fertilizing - everything that goes into the crop," Caywood said. She estimates that her farm could shutter in three years as expenses mount and property taxes remain. Her son, Travis Hartman, has leased plots in other irrigation districts that currently have access to Colorado River water.Ĭaywood continues to plant as much as possible, but watches with unease as neighboring farmland is converted into solar panel developments. In an attempt to salvage her property, Nancy frequently conducts farm tours to educate people about the water crisis. A prolonged drought will not just reduce local farm income in Arizona, but create tighter supply and increased food prices for consumers across the country.ĭespite the brutal conditions, Caywood wants to continue the farming legacy of her parents, both of whom died last year. Scientists say 42% of the drought's severity can be attributed to human-caused climate change, and warn that conditions could persist for years. West is now experiencing a megadrought that's generated the two driest decades in the region in at least 1,200 years. Still, for thousands of years, the rivers and aquifers that hold groundwater have supported the state's now $23 billion agriculture industry.Ĭlimate change and dwindling water supplies have wreaked havoc on the once prosperous farms that could endure the arid conditions. The farmers hit the hardest this year are in Pinal County, a rural stretch of land where agriculture is receding and slowly getting replaced by solar panels and housing developments.Īrizona's climate doesn't have enough rain to grow most crops. More than 40 million people in the West rely on the Colorado River, which flows along Arizona's western edge. "But we're trying to hang on because this is what we love." "We're not making one dime off this farm right now," Caywood said. And Caywood is grappling with a recent 33% price hike for water she's not receiving. The farm will soon be operating at less than half of its usual production. The canals that would normally bring water from an eastern Arizona reservoir to Caywood's family farm have mostly dried up. prompted the first-ever cuts to their water supply from the Colorado River. An intensifying drought and declining reservoir levels across the Western U.S. Farming in the desert has always been a challenge for Arizona's farmers, who grow water-intensive crops like cotton, alfalfa and corn for cows.
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